A recent report published by the International Organization for Migration (IOM) found that tracked outgoing migration movements through Ethiopia, Djibouti, Somalia and Yemen increased during 2025 reflecting new smuggling tactics at both bypassed checkpoints and accelerated flows—including the growing use of more remote routes across Djibouti—alongside renewed enumerator access to landing sites along the Ta’iz coast, Yemen. The report stated that migrants and smugglers have been observed using new routes to circumvent police checkpoints in Ethiopia, Djibouti, Somalia and Yemen. According to the IOM’s report 95,100 forced returns were recorded from Saudi Arabia to Ethiopia in 2025, resulting in a cumulative 750,400 returns since the Saudi government operation began in 2017. An increase was particularly observed in returnees heading to Afar (+28%) and Tigray (+22%), regions that also host a large displaced population. Spontaneous returns rose by 28%, from 16,000 flows in 2024 to 20,500 in 2025. This can be attributed to the deteriorating humanitarian situation and insecurity along the route in Yemen. Challenges along the route The report found that “ At the end of 2025, there were an estimated 132,300 people stranded in Yemen, 400 in Djibouti, and 6,600 in Somalia”. A deteriorated humanitarian situation in Yemen has resulted in reports of stranded migrants and detention and mistreatment of women in smuggling dens. The report mentioned that IOM responded to the needs of 20,800 people at Migration Response Centres on the Eastern Route un 2025, a 61% increase from 2024 (13,000). Around one quarter of people assisted were children (5,200, or 25%). Nearly half of assisted children were unaccompanied (46%).IOM also assisted 6,300 people who voluntarily requested return assistance to Ethiopia. In 2025, 922 deaths and disappearances were recorded along the Eastern Route, almost double the 558 reported in 2024. This makes 2025 the deadliest year on record for the Missing Migrants Project since its launch in 2014, with a minimum total of 4,368 cases on the route to date. IOM’s report concluded that the projected growth in Ethiopia’s economy in 2026 may reduce some exit movements on the Eastern Route by addressing livelihood-related drivers. However, improved financial means may also enable individuals to pursue migration aspirations that were previously unattainable. Transit movements through Djibouti’s coastal and northern areas toward the Arabian Peninsula is expected to remain high, as smugglers increasingly use alternative routes to bypass police checkpoints, often through areas with limited IOM Displacement Tracking Matrix (DTM) field coverage. Heightened geopolitical tensions in the Gulf Region, may have broader spill over effects on mobility patterns along the Eastern Route, underscoring the need for continued monitoring. |
