Iranian Commander Oversees Houthi Push Towards Bab al-Mandab from Hodeidah

A recent intelligence report indicates that Abdolreza Shahlaei, a senior commander in Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), is directing military and security arrangements for the Houthi militia from Hodeidah Governorate. This initiative is reportedly part of an Iranian effort to consolidate the militia's gains on the western coast and pave the way for potential advances toward Ras al-Ara, near the strategic Bab al-Mandab strait.

According to Sheba Intelligence, Shahlaei is based at a newly established IRGC command post in Al-Khawkhah, a coastal district in Hodeidah. His presence is said to be integral to reorganizing the Houthi militia's military deployment, reinforcing their positions, and strengthening front lines along the coast.

The intelligence suggests that the Iranian plan includes efforts to infiltrate military formations opposing the Houthi militia, such as the Giants Brigades, the National Shield forces, the Yemeni Army, and other resistance groups. This involves recruiting informants within these ranks and gathering intelligence on their plans and movements. Simultaneously, the strategy aims to exploit regional rivalries to weaken coordination among these opposing forces.

Sheba Intelligence assesses that this strategy is not solely focused on territorial gains but also seeks to undermine the capacity of anti-Houthi forces to launch counter-offensives. This would allow the Houthi militia to solidify their coastal positions and facilitate a gradual expansion toward Ras al-Ara in Lahj Governorate. The area's proximity to the Bab al-Mandab strait, a crucial global maritime artery, makes any Houthi military expansion there particularly significant, potentially enhancing the militia's influence over shipping and maritime routes connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean.

These findings emerge amidst previous intelligence reports of advances by government forces near Al-Omari camp and Dhubab. This situation may be prompting Iran and the Houthi militia to secure their existing coastal gains. Independent verification of government forces' control over Al-Omari camp has not yet been achieved.

Sheba Intelligence has previously linked Shahlaei to Houthi escalations. A report from August 1st stated that Shahlaei held a meeting with Houthi leader Abdul-Malik al-Houthi in Saada. On August 20th, the network reported, citing intelligence sources, that Shahlaei toured several fronts and met with prominent Houthi leaders to discuss a Tehran-backed plan targeting oil resources in Marib and a potential offensive through the Mocha region toward Bab al-Mandab. The sources indicated that Iranian experts were subsequently dispatched to assess Yemeni government defenses, suggesting direct Iranian involvement in planning potential military operations in the region.

The intelligence network's reports also point to prior attempts to infiltrate opposing Houthi forces. On August 24th, Sheba Intelligence reported Houthi directives to recruit sources within government units to obtain advance information on military plans, troop deployments, and movements, although these directives were not directly attributed to Shahlaei. Following the Houthi militia's declaration of control over Dhubab and Perim Island in Bab al-Mandab, a report on September 11th detailed a plan, allegedly overseen by the IRGC, to advance toward the Ras al-Ara coast. This plan reportedly includes not only military operations but also a psychological warfare campaign involving the dissemination of rumors, accusations of treason, and the exploitation of grievances and regional rivalries to erode the morale of anti-Houthi forces and encourage defections.

The latest intelligence suggests an Iranian attempt to solidify Houthi coastal gains into a long-term military presence while simultaneously working to dismantle opposing fronts and prevent them from regaining initiative. If successful, the expansion of Houthi influence along the western coast toward Bab al-Mandab could introduce a new regional dimension to the Yemeni conflict, given the area's critical importance to international navigation, trade, and energy security.