Analysis: The Houthis weigh risk over loyalty in the US-Israel war on Iran

Aligned with Iran, Yemen's Houthis are treading carefully amid the US-Israeli war, as they calculate the cost of involvement to their own survival, wrote  Mat Nashed in https://www.newarab.com

Nashed, an award-nominated journalist who has covered the MENA region since the 2011, added “Yet despite their close relationship with the Islamic Republic, the Houthis would prefer not to get dragged into a regional war. They risk their own survival if they do, analysts told The New Arab.

“Everyone thought the Houthis would jump in [to defend Iran] once the war started. But their two-year war against Israel - and on Red Sea shipments - proved very costly for them,” said Ahmed Nagi, an expert on Yemen with International Crisis Group (ICG), a non-profit dedicated to preventing conflict worldwide.

The Houthis and those living under their rule are under mounting economic pressure.

The group has paid a heavy price - in terms of casualties and infrastructure - for confronting the US and Israel in solidarity with civilians in Gaza.

The Houthis now fear that they will invite another major operation against them if they come to Iran’s defense and that neither they nor civilians will be able to cope with the aftermath.

That could lead to internal unrest while under external attack, compromising their ability to repress dissent.

“They know what the cost would be, and it would be high: it would be fatal for them,” Yazeed al-Jeddawy, an expert on Yemen with the Sanaa Center, told TNA.

While Iran is sustaining strikes on Israel and Gulf states where US bases and personnel are located, it could soon call on the Houthis for help.

If called on by Iran, the Houthis will likely join the war, but analysts say they would calibrate their response to avoid a major retaliation by the US or Israel. [Getty]

“Iran is using whatever they have to hit back [right now], and one component of that is [the axis] alliance,” said Negar Mortazavi, an expert on Iran with the Center for International Policy, a think-tank in Washington, DC.

However, it’s unlikely that GCC states will be the target of Houthi attacks. Any assault on Saudi Arabia could particularly backfire for the group.

Due to significant damage to vital infrastructure and sanctions in recent years, the Houthis view a Saudi deal as a financial lifeline.

For now, the Houthis are behaving cautiously, but they could face an external assault whether they provoke it or not, especially if the Islamic Republic implodes.

That would mean that Hamas, Hezbollah and the Islamic Republic in Iran would all be significantly degraded, leaving militias in Iraq and the Houthis as the only members left from the once sprawling ‘axis of resistance’.

In this scenario, the Houthis would need to make significant concessions during negotiations with Riyadh and the government in Aden in order to avoid a major foreign and domestic offensive against them.

“In the long run, I can’t see the Houthis surviving unless they make concessions to their adversaries and engage positively with Saudi Arabia on peace talks,” said al-Jeddawy.