As other Iran-allied groups are engaging in the Mideast war, Yemen's Houthis hold back

Yemen´s Iran-backed Houthi rebels have so far remained on the sidelines as the Iran war widens across the Middle East, raising questions about why - and when the battle-hardened rebels might join the fight.

Iran has retaliated against the United States and Israel with missiles and drones, targeting American military bases and other locations in Gulf Arab countries, disrupting trade routes, choking fuel supplies and threatening regional air traffic.

Until now, the Houthis have been reluctant to fight, fearing assassinations of their leaders, internal divisions in Yemen and uncertainties over weapons supplies, the experts said.

But that may change as Iran seeks to increase pressure on global oil supply routes through potential attacks by the Houthis, who have had previous success targeting oil facilities in the region, the analysts said.

The Houthis are likely to step in if the conflict widens, experts added, or if they perceive an existential threat to Iran, such as significant deterioration in military capabilities.

´Houthis, of course, are always ready for any war," said Farea al-Muslimi, a research fellow at the Chatham House think tank in London. "Some weaponry moved in different areas inside Yemen recently ... but it´s still not clear whether it's for a military escalation."

Attacks on vessels during the Israel-Hamas war upended shipping in the Red Sea, through which about $1 trillion worth of goods passed each year before the war.

Should the Houthis join the Iran war, their primary targets would likely be oil tankers. since shipping offers the most immediate pressure point and attacking it would signal escalation while impacting energy supply chains.

Attacks on oil installations could also be considered. The Houthis have previously struck oil facilities in Saudi Arabia during their long-running conflict against the Saudi-led coalition.

Abdel-Bari Taher, a political analyst and former head of the press syndicate in Yemen, said any decision to join the war is impacted by the internal situation in Yemen, including recent deadly clashes in south Yemen, public opposition in Sanaa to joining the war and heightened caution among Houthi leaders after high-profile assassinations.

´´Despite these constraints and the complex domestic and regional dynamics, Houthi involvement in the conflict remains a possibility," Taher said.

Al-Muslimi, the Chatham House analyst, said the Houthis don´t have the military capabilities or an internal Yemeni interest that would force them to join the war, and the group seems committed to a ceasefire with the U.S. that was brokered by Oman last year.

"They hope to fight, especially with Israel, but they can´t be the ones to fire the first shot," al-Muslimi said.

He said the Houthis would likely need a local Yemeni cause to join the fighting - a reason that would strengthen support among their local base.